The Abortion Quagmire

I recently participated in yet another discussion about abortion. Of course that is a frequent and dangerous topic of debate these days; last year a woman’s Constitutional right to abortion was overturned by the Supreme Court and states are now rolling out ever more extreme laws and policies. There were about 20 people in this particular group. All were older individuals past child bearing age. As I listened I was distressed at how extreme some people’s positions were, how naive others could be, and how intolerant people were of individuals with honest but differing opinions. That led me to express my thinking in that session and document my views again here.

I have written extensively about this subject before. I don’t plan to repeat all the details of my feelings, but just describe again the basic tenets of what I think individual rights should be and what role society in general should play. Maybe that makes sense since my earlier writing was before the Supreme Court made its landmark ruling. If anything I write here is in conflict with what I have written before, please consider this different view as progress in my thinking.

As a general proposition I consider the decision to have an abortion the exclusive right of the pregnant woman and her partner, but within some reasonably defined boundaries of a civilized society. I know there is no agreement among the American electorate on when life begins. So it is not up to me or any other American to dictate an extreme interpretation of that defining moment. What I do believe though is that sometime before a fetus is delivered as a healthy new born child, society has some rights (probably actual responsibility) to protect the sanctity of life. That right and responsibility likely should not be limited only to the abortion itself, but include other social as well as economic aspects of protecting new life.

As it relates to abortion, I don’t pretend to know or venture to dictate when an individual woman’s rights end and society’s right begins. But in my own mind a woman experiencing an otherwise normal pregnancy does not have an exclusive right to seek or expect to get an abortion the day, the week, or even the final month or two before delivery. Likewise in my view, society has no right to limit abortion in at least the first 3 or 4 months of a pregnancy. For me the middle ground between those two limits is where the individual rights of women and society’s right/responsibility to regulate ought to be negotiated. Further, society also has no right to limit the operations of women’s health care facilities (including abortion services) at less than the normal traffic demand.

I am not a person of faith and do not have a vested religious interest of any kind. But I do live by a rational moral code that believes civilized humans have a shared responsibility to protect life. I was perfectly happy with the 1973 Supreme Court decision that specified viability of the fetus as the point beyond which abortion was inappropriate, except for the health and safety of the woman. That made rational sense to me.

Viability is no longer the national standard though, and abortion is not a Constitutional right women have anymore. The USSC yielded to the religious community and now says it is up to the states to decide a woman’s right to abortion. From a purely technical perspective that well may be the right answer. Abortion is not identified in the Constitution as an area of authority reserved for the federal government.

The unfortunate part of the new Supreme Court position though is that it severely divides the electorate and weakens our democracy. It ignores the stabilizing influence of stare decisis (precedent); abortion has been a Constitutional right for 50 years. Most women of child bearing age have never known any other rules. And I believe it is the first time a previously granted Constitutional right has been revoked.

Sad but easily predictable, the same extreme zealots (especially evangelical Christian leaders) who insisted on and won the argument that abortion was a state issue, are now pushing politicians to pass new federal legislation to further restrict a woman’s right to the procedure at the national level in spite of state laws. Of course the women most affected are those who can least afford the cost of pregnancy, delivery, and raising a child.

Finally, outlawing abortion is impossible. Even the most ardent anti-abortionists know that. We already once outlawed alcohol with disastrous results. And sex is much more natural than getting drunk. Wealthy women will easily find ways around any burden. Only poor women will wind up delivering the children they don’t want and can’t afford. Or worse, desperation will lead many to pursue unsafe procedures that will inevitably result in deadly consequences for some.

So is the goal of the anti-abortionists to reduce abortion, or simply to exercise political power over others who may have a different religious or philosophical perspective on the subject? I think if polled all Americans would prefer fewer abortions, and no one would lobby for more. Most Americans just want the procedure available to all women under reasonable social regulation that reflects our secular society’s values.

In a liberal democracy like ours, if the objective really is to reduce abortions both sides of the idealogical divide could easily find ways to work together to reduce it if they wanted to. Serious sex education and access to contraceptives would be a great place to start, and could dramatically reduce the incidence of that procedure. Why don’t the stakeholders stop playing political games and move cooperatively to reduce abortions?

Deja Vu

Late in 2019 I wrote the following Letter to the Editor of the Columbus Dispatch. I feared Hunter Biden would make his father too vulnerable to win against Trump in the 2020 election, and said so. I took substantial abuse in subsequent editorials as well as from my neighbors at the time for daring to express such views. And of course Biden did not take advice from people like me, ran anyway, and wound up winning the Presidency.

Now 4 years later what I feared then may actually be coming true this campaign season. According to the polls, most Americans think the President was engaged in wrongdoing with his son while Vice President. Even a large minority of Democrats seem to fear the President is seriously weakened and may not win. Maybe I was right, but just got the year wrong.

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Letters to the Editor – Columbus Dispatch – October 22, 2019

It’s time for Joe Biden to gracefully bow out of the 2020 presidential race. I was a supporter of Joe for President in 2008 until he dropped out. So I am clearly not anti-Biden. But things are different this time.

I don’t subscribe to the conspiracy theory that Vice President Biden used his office to cover up corrupt behavior of his son. I also doubt that his son was in fact involved in any corrupt behavior in his position on the board of Burisma, the Ukrainian energy company.

However, I have no doubt that Hunter Biden got his position because his father was Vice President.  I am also certain the company used Hunter Biden to enhance its credibility as a legitimate business by exploiting that father/son relationship. And that, whether corrupt or not, is an optical problem both Joe Biden and his son should have recognized and avoided.

Hunter Biden has taken full responsibility for their errors of judgement but that is not enough. You can’t “un-ring a bell” so to speak. Regardless of whether there is evidence of wrongdoing or not the Republicans and Trump will continue to exploit that optical misstep. Biden’s Party and the country as a whole don’t need that distraction.

Joe: Do the right thing and withdraw from the race.

Mark Mathys

Columbus, Ohio

Reparations for Black Veterans’ Descendants

In the United States we continue to wrestle with issues of racism and the economic, political, and cultural implications of that curse on our democracy. For the most part we have done it to ourselves, and we will not solve it in my lifetime, or maybe even that of my children. Nevertheless, we need to accelerate a national effort to heal that scar for the generations to come.

Regardless of your political philosophy or ideology about democratic governance, ask yourself if systemic racism does not still exist why does the average black American have one-tenth of the wealth of the average white American. Why is life expectancy for blacks in America significantly less than for whites. Why is the killing of unarmed blacks by police dramatically higher than the same kind of killing of their white counterparts? And why is the incarceration rate for blacks twice that of whites?

If one recognizes and considers those statistical realities and it’s not racism, then what explains the disparity of standing between blacks and whites in our society? Are blacks just lazier than whites? Less intelligent? Are they simply less civilized than whites, and/or naturally more violent? Or could something more systemic be at work here after all?

There is little valid contrary argument that conditions for the black electorate are substantially better in America than they were in the Civil War era, or even 50 years ago. Blacks can now be found in all the centers of power and authority – academia, government, corporate governance. But their numbers in those positions don’t match their share of the general population. In many cases they even seem to be a necessary token presence. Given all that, I would argue that systemic racism is alive and well in America and as a liberal democracy we must more aggressively address it before it may be too late.

One area of serious political tension is in what, if anything, we owe the black community for their historic unfair treatment by white society, as well as the continued, though more subtle, disparity that historic (and maybe current) mistreatment still causes today. I have written about systemic racism in the past. But in this piece I specifically want to address the concept of reparations.

The idea of the American government paying reparations to freed slaves has been around for about as long as slavery itself, long before the Civil war and the official freeing of slaves. There have been many ideas floated about how to address it, but the problem is always lack of political enthusiasm or consensus on the need to address it as well as the critical issues – how to figure out who would be entitled, how to decide what might be fair, how to administer a rational program, how to pay for it, and how to get public buy-in to what would likely be a very large financial obligation.

The right way to address such a fundamental issue in a liberal democracy would be for the federal government to launch a major research and analysis project to study the scope of the challenge, the likely effectiveness of alternative solutions, and the relative cost/benefit of those alternatives. Once a comprehensive study and analysis is completed, then plans for and develop of an implementation strategy can be assembled.

As it turns out such a strategic approach has been proposed in Congress several times over the years. The current proposal is outlined in HR-40, officially titled “Commission to Study and Develop Reparation Proposals for African Americans Act”. Unfortunately, though frequently introduced, it never goes anywhere. It’s easy for politicians to discount the need and/or public value of such an approach, as well as just claim we can’t afford it. That is likely to be the story for my lifetime, which leads me to consider and offer a compromise alternative. It is not nearly as good as HR-40, but eliminates some of the nebulous elements, and could be packaged to be easy for Americans to understand. I call it the African-American GI Bill.

Not sure what people know about the WWII era GI Bill. But two elements of that law (low cost home loans and free higher education) effectively created today’s “white” American middle class. Sadly though it was intentionally written and implemented to exclude the vast majority of black veterans. My idea is simply to write a new “GI Bill” with similar subsidized home loans and education for the current descendants of those black veterans who were excluded 75 years ago.

My idea will not lift up every black American. But it will cover a fairly large segment of the black population, and over time would dramatically expand the black middle class. I want to believe that if executed well it would have a positive knock on affect that would elevate the black community as a whole. It also seems to me an honest compromise approach that the electorate can understand even if there is not universal buy-in. It likely would also avoid some of the pitfalls of other abstract theoretical alternatives. And with an aggressive marketing campaign we might sell the idea to the electorate as a legitimate effort to right some of the racial wrongs white America has committed. It might change minds and reduce racial tensions over the long term. But even if none of that occurred it is one of the right kinds of things to do in a liberal democracy.

My personal “back of the envelop” calculation is that there would be about 3 generations of descendants that could qualify for this form of reparations. There were about 1.2 million black Americans who served in uniform during WW2. Assuming the US fertility rate during the past 75 years plus the death rate of descendants, particularly of the first generation after the veterans, my semi-educated guess is that we are talking about the order of 8 million potential Americans qualified for this kind of reparations payments.

The benefits of this approach I see are:

  • It avoids trying to figure out who might be entitled to participate in the program. We have fairly complete records of who the WWII black veterans were. And we can easily determine with a high level of confidence who those soldiers current descendants are. Similarly, we can eliminate those descendants whose veteran ancestor did in deed get the opportunity to take advantage of the original GI Bill, as well as those descendants who already have sufficient wealth where additional subsidy would not serve a useful public purpose.
  • While the cost will be high we can easily identify what those cost will be for planned implementation. We also have much more geographically distributed academic and financial institutions than we had during the original GI Bill implementation; that will make administration of a new Bill more efficient. And the qualifying population is much more centrally located in urban areas where those institutions are.
  • The expected federal funds required for the program would be spread out over several years, thus reducing an immediate severe budget impact. Of course the federal government can negotiate with financial and academic institutions for favorable financial terms, and incentivize them to participate. And through business incentive and public pressure we should reasonably expect competition among academic and financial institutions for this large influx of potential students and home buyers.
  • The influx of these students and home buyers will substantially stimulate the local and national economy just as it did in the late ’40s and early ’50s, with new tax revenues offsetting, probably over time even erasing, the US government investment in these reparations. It will also virtually over night massively increase the racial diversity in educational achievement and home ownership which most economists, politicians, and Americans in general think is a desirable stabilizing influence on our democracy;
  • As another rationale for justifying this new spending, though fairly technical, is the future costs the US government will avoid paying through public assistance systems as more black Americans move into the middle class.
  • Finally, by excluding black veterans from the GI Bill after WWII the US government probably saved the order of $20,000 per black veteran at the time. If we had spent that amount on those veterans, it is easy to extrapolate that 75 years worth of economic growth would have created thousands, maybe tens of thousands, of veterans with accumulated wealth of $1M or more, and substantially more tax revenue and reduced public assistance. Handing down that wealth to subsequent generations would have been the economic engine to dramatically expand the black middle class just as it did for white veterans. We should expect the same thing going forward with this kind of public investment.

I am not naive about the matter of reparations. I know most Americans don’t think the current generation should pay for mistakes of the past. I get that. But that is why I am suggesting a case that is literally so black and white, and relatively recent, at least in the lifetimes of most WWII veterans’ children.

I have the sense that most Americans are fair minded. And if they knew and understood how the original GI Bill was specifically designed and implemented against black veterans they would be more willing to consider righting that wrong. Regardless, I know it would be a hard sell requiring imaginative “marketing” by federal politicians. Presumably that would not be Republicans. But who knows? Maybe if either of the two parties made a major effort to “educate the electorate” about the original travesty and was willing to spend political capital on a solution something might happen. At least I want to be optimistic. 

Climate Change

I recently participated in a mostly two person debate in my Current Events Discussion Group about climate change and whether it is just part of a natural earth cycle or is being caused by humans burning fossil fuels. Another participant and I have polar opposite views on that subject so we agreed to defend our positions on the issue before the other participants. We each prepared a position paper and distributed it to all participants in advance of the discussion.

My friend believes that what the world is experiencing is purely a result of the natural cycle of warming and cooling that the earth has gone through for millions of years. He says that we are in the later stages of a warming cycle that may last for another 3,000 years before a new cooling cycle begins. He discounts human activities as insignificant in the natural earth cycle.

I, on the other hand, am convinced that human activity is disrupting the natural earth cycle and substantially accelerating the warming of the earth. The culprit of course in my mind is excessive release of greenhouse gasses through the burning of fossil fuels. I further fear that if humanity does not take immediate action catastrophic climate change will make large portions of the earth uninhabitable before the end of the 21st century.

Each of us claims the scientific high ground in spite of our radically different perspectives. We are completely in sync on the long history of the earth’s life cycle. We only differ in what has and is happening since the beginning of the industrial revolution. He thinks it’s natural warming which we should accept and that civilization simply must adapt; I think it’s man made and an existential threat to civilization as we know it.

We each produced a document to represent our positions. My friend used an outline format; I used a narrative style. I am copying each position paper verbatim as presented. For the sake of distinguishing the two positions here, I call his presentation “Earth’s Climate History”, and mine “Earth’s Climate Future”. My friend did not provide the scientific sources of his paper. However, from my own sources I agree that his paper represents earth’s planetary physics as well as climate history up until the beginning of the industrial revolution. You draw your own conclusion about what climate change truth is from these and/or other sources.

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Earth’s Climate History

Climate Change Factors

I. Insolation from Sun:  Heat from the Sun reaching surface of Earth?

A.  Sun Heat Cycles – e.g. 11-year sunspot cycle cools Earth.

1.   No measure yet of long-term Sun cycles.

B.  Milankovich Cycles, which are astronomical.

1.  Changes in orbit of Earth around Sun – Circular vs Elliptical.

Elliptical means cooler climate.  It’s now more round.  100,000 year cycle.

2.  Changes in tilting of Earth’s axis relative to Sun.  It ranges from 21.5 degrees to 24.5 degrees; it’s currently 23.5 degrees.  41,000 year cycle.

3.  “Wobble” of tilt of Earth’s axis.  A net 21,000 year cycle.

4.  Coincidence of cycles increases impact on Earth’s climate.

II. Feedback Conditions on Earth

A.  Positive feedback conditions for warming Earth.

1.  Warm ocean water absorbs and holds more heat and CO2.

2.  Atmospheric CO2 holds in heat on Earth. 

3.  Ocean surface is dark and has a low albedo, which reflects less heat back into space.

B.  Negative feedback conditions for warming Earth.

1.  Albedo effect of e.g. clouds and ice reflecting Sun’s energy

back into space.  Thereby, a glacier can feed itself.

2.  “Silicate weathering” removes CO2 from atmosphere, as silicate rocks (exposed by melting glaciers) are weathered.

3.  Volcanic and other materials reflecting Sun’s energy back into space.  E.g. the 1815 “Year of Never Summer” after Mt. Tambora volcanic eruption in Indonesia.

C.  Ocean currents transfer heat and cold horizontally and       vertically around the Earth.  E.g. Gulf and Japanese Currents.

D.   Man’s rapid mining and burning of hydrocarbons are quickly      returning to the atmosphere huge amounts of heat and CO2,     which took millions of years to accumulate and store underground. 

2,600,000 North and South America join at Isthmus of Panama.

Years Ago Pleistocene Ice Age begins.  Since then, continental glaciers advance and retreat over a dozen times.

105,000 Continental glaciers all melted, as warm Inter-Glacial Years Ago Period ends.  Average annual temperature approaches 60 degrees.  Ocean sea level at max – 25’ higher than now. Latest cold Glacial Period begins.

70,000 Wisconsinan Continental Glacier starts to form in NE 

Years Ago Canada, as snow no longer melts in summer and starts

to accumulate.  As moisture is transferred from oceans

to continental glaciers, ocean sea level falls.  Average annual temperature drops to 33 degrees.

25,000 Wisconsinan Glacier reaches Ohio.

Years Ago

20,000 Wisconsinan Glacier reaches its maximum – 10,000’ thick

Years Ago in Canada, 5,000’ thick in Cleveland, and over 1,000’ thick

in Columbus – extending south to Chillicothe.  Ocean sea  level down 400’.  Glacial Period cooling switches to current Inter-Glacial Period warming.

14,000 Wisconsinan Glacier retreats from Ohio.

Years Ago

10,000 Continental Glaciers all melted, except for Greenland and

Years Ago Antarctica.  Ocean sea level rises 375’ to within 25’ of max.

Present Nearing end of Inter-Glacial Period warming.  Average annual temperature now over 55 degrees.  Over next 3,000 years, Greenland glacier will melt and Antarctic 

glacier will partially melt raising ocean sea level another 25’.

3,000 Average annual temperature at 60 degrees. Warm Inter-Glacial Years Period ends, and cold Glacial Period begins.

From

Now

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Earth’s Climate Future

International climate scientists are continuing to study the natural evolution of climate cycles. But today there is a strong focus on better understanding the relatively recent disturbing trend in “Global Warming”.

Global Warming refers to the change of global surface temperature relative to a baseline. Specific global warming levels, such as 1.5°C, 2°C, 3°C or 4°C, are defined as changes in global surface temperature relative to the years 1850–1900 as the baseline; that is the earliest period for which reliable observations are available with sufficient geographic coverage.

Scientific investigation over the most recent several decades indicates that humans burning fossil fuels is destroying the historic natural climate cycles, and left unchecked, will soon produce catastrophic climate consequences for civilization. Here is what they now know:

  • Climate is influenced by a range of factors, but there is a nearly linear relationship between cumulative CO2 emissions and increases in global surface temperature. The main human drivers of climate change are increases in the atmospheric concentrations of CO2, other greenhouse gases, and aerosols from burning fossil fuels, land use, and other sources;
  • The scale of recent changes in the climate system as a whole – and the present state of many aspects of the climate system – are unprecedented over many centuries to many millennia;
  • The current rates of increase of the concentration of the major greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide) are unprecedented over at least the last 800,000 years;
  • Each of the last four decades has been successively warmer than any decade that preceded it since 1850. Global surface temperature was 1.09°C higher in 2011–2020 than 1850–1900;
  • Global surface temperature will continue to increase until at least mid-century under all emissions scenarios studied. Global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C will be exceeded during the 21st century unless deep reductions in CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions occur in the coming decades;
  • Effects of global warming tend to lag measured increases by some decades. The impact of the current global warming state as well as that which has already occurred will continue to show up for decades to come. Therefore, we will likely see the climate impact of temperature increases we are measuring today in around 50 years or so;
  • Continued global warming is projected to further intensify the global water cycle, including its variability, global monsoon precipitation and the severity of wet and dry events. The global water cycle also describes the north/south and east/west circulations of ocean currents and their impact on regional temperatures;
  • Many changes due to past and future greenhouse gas emissions are irreversible for centuries to millennia in the future, especially changes in the ocean, ice sheets, and global sea level;
  • Outcomes, such as ice-sheet collapse, abrupt ocean circulation changes, some compound extreme events, and warming substantially larger than that assessed cannot be ruled out and are part of risk assessment.

The latest international scientific climate change assessment (IPCC AR6) concludes that:

  • Humans have played the dominant role in driving recent climate change. That influence has warmed the atmosphere, oceans, and land. Widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and biosphere have occurred as a result. This conclusion is based on a synthesis of information from multiple lines of evidence, including direct observations of recent changes in Earth’s climate;
  • Observed increases in well-mixed greenhouse gas concentrations since around 1750 are unequivocally caused by human activities. Since 2011, concentrations have continued to increase in the atmosphere, reaching annual averages of 410 parts per million (ppm) for carbon dioxide (CO2);
  • Climate scientists now consider it an established fact that human-induced greenhouse gas emissions have led to an increased frequency and intensity of weather and climate extremes since 1850, in particular for temperature extremes;
  • Human-induced climate change is already affecting many weather and climate extremes in every region across the globe. Evidence of observed changes in extremes such as heatwaves, heavy precipitation, droughts, and tropical cyclones are attributed to human influence;
  • The dominant effect of human activities is not only in the warming of global surface temperature, but also in the pattern of warming in the lower atmosphere and cooling in the stratosphere, warming of the ocean, melting of sea ice, and many other observed changes;
  • Taken together, this evidence shows that humans are the dominant cause of observed global warming over recent decades.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is my primary source for quality climate change information. That body was set up and tasked specifically with collecting and consolidating the best scientific evidence about climate change. They are the world’s foremost authority on what climate scientists are thinking and saying, and what scientific research shows about climate change.

 The points I make in this document reflect my best understanding of the findings presented in the IPCC’s AR6, Working Group I Report released in August of 2021. I have identified what I think are the central themes of that document. But you need to cut me some slack here on the limited technical details I am presenting. They are all in the Report, but it is long, and I have done the best I can to condense 2391 pages into three.

The IPCC has produced five previous Assessment Reports (AR1-5) since 1988. After the first, each subsequent report has refined the previous assessment with new scientific data and understanding. In each report the evidence for the dominance of human influence on climate change gets stronger.

Note:  There are three working groups within IPCC AR6:  Working Group I studies the Physical Science Basis of Climate Change;  Working Group II focuses on Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability;  Working Group III considers potential Mitigation of Climate Change. I have not yet explored WG II and WG III in the new Assessment Report 6.

New Book Review Posts

If you have decided to read some of my book reviews you will likely notice that I seem to have read most all of them on the same day. That’s not quite the case. On that one day (today – July 31, 2023) I corrected one of my more brilliant errors.

Over the months/years as I wrote reviews of books I had read I not only categorized them as “Book Summaries”, but also assigned them to other categories as well based on the central theme of the work. Ultimately that interspersed the book themes with my own thoughts and perspectives in a way that I just thought was not helpful and confused my thinking with that of various authors. So I decided I would maintain the book reviews only within that specific category and eliminate reference to them from other categories.

With that intention I proceeded to erase them from all categories other than “Book Summaries not realizing what I was doing erased them completely from all categories. As a result of my brilliance I had to reload them from a master fill that I fortunately keep. So therein lies the answer to why nearly all of them were published today.

Book Review Number 46

For God and Country: The Christian Case for Trump – Ralph Reed

Ralph Reed is one of the founders of the Christian Coalition as well as the founder and chairman of the Faith and Freedom Coalition. I chose to read this book because of its title and author. I had hoped to learn something to help me understand what made so many Evangelical Christians abandon the sacred values of their faith to support Trump in 2016 and why they still stand by him. This review may be shorter than most because after suffering through all 330 pages I learned virtually nothing of value.

The book is mostly a history of Trump’s transition (starting in 2010) from a marginally legal business mogul with amoral character to autocratic style politician, his run for the White House, and his presidency. In the very first couple of chapters my hopes of learning anything useful or honest were dashed. The author essentially regurgitated all the Trump and Republican talking points. He attacked Democrats as socialists bent on taking away Evangelicals’ right to free speech and religious freedom, promoting abortion on demand at any time during pregnancy and at tax payer’s expense, and stacking the court with judges who will not respect the Constitution. Trump and Evangelicals in general he claims are both victims of this extreme Left conspiracy.

Chapter by chapter the author repeats the Trump mantra:  crooked Hillary; liberal hypocrisy, fake news, no Russia collusion, perfect call to Ukraine. Mr. Reed does a brilliant job of lying, spinning, twisting, and misrepresenting the facts of President Trump’s tenure in office. He gives Trump a pass on every amoral, hateful, and vindictive act by Biblical rationalization or assigning it to the past. Sadly, the author advances and strengthens the proposition that national evangelical leaders’ goals are political rather than spiritual. He promotes the very intolerance and hatred too many of those leaders express toward anyone whose beliefs and goals even slightly challenge evangelicals’ right to force Americans to submit to their dogma.

Book Review Number 45

Factfulness – Hans Rosling

The entire focus of this book is on demonstrating through publicly available statistical data that the condition of the world is much better than people think; further, that it is continuing to improve. The author was an internationally known Swedish physician, academic, and public speaker. He called himself a very serious “possibilist”. That means someone who neither hopes without reason, nor fears without reason; someone who constantly resists the overdramatic worldview.

Professor Rosling starts off in the introduction with a 13 question test about how things are in the world. Here is just one of the questions:  “How many of the world’s one year old children have been vaccinated against disease?” 20%? 50%? 80%?  Rosling says he has asked this question of more than 12,000 professionals in meetings around the world – bankers, health scientists, academics, and members of the World Economic Forum, among many others. The correct answer is 80%, the most common answer is 20%. No group of professionals has done as well as 50% correct.

The author then follows up in subsequent chapters to explain the human and societal nature that makes people so wrong about what the real condition of the world is. He identifies the source of our wrong impressions in 11 human instincts. I will just list one such instinct here: The gap instinct – he says humans tend to see the world around them in binary terms. In our minds we divide the world into rich and poor countries; developed and under-developed; Western and the rest; as well as other binary assessments. We assume all countries fall into one category or the other with a large gap between them. The truth however is that most everyone actually lives somewhere in the middle with relatively few at the extremes.

The author says it is especially helpful in understanding the state of the world and its rate of change if one uses an explanatory model that divides world population into 4 income categories. While some assume culture and religion are key drivers of progress, Mr. Rosling says they have virtually no impact when compared to income. Income categorization is a central theme that he uses throughout the book.

The author further discusses how we tend to assume that what we learned about the world in earlier years is still true, and that there has not been significant change. The reality though is that there has been dramatic improvements in world health, economics, education, and adoption of technology in the past few decades. He suggests that we need to regularly test what we think we know against the latest information. In short we need to continue to educate ourselves throughout our lives. He stresses that he is not saying that things in the world are all good; in fact they are bad in many places, in most cases just much better than they used to be.

In one of the final chapters the author addresses what he calls the urgency instinct – the need to act immediately. He says most urgent crisis really aren’t once factual data is examined. But then he identifies five urgent global risks that he thinks we should be worrying about and addressing more seriously than we are:  1)  A global pandemic – very appropriate for our current world situation. He sees a new flu-like pandemic as the most dangerous threat to global health. He says we need the World Health Organization to remain healthy and strong to coordinate a global response;  2)  A global financial collapse. He believes the current system is too complex to understand and control. We need a simpler one so we have a better chance of avoiding a future collapse;  3)   A world war. He believes we need to accelerate global interaction (trade, educational exchanges, free internet, global safety net, and other coalitions) to mitigate the risk of the terrible human instinct to violent retaliation and war;  4)  Climate change. The planet’s common resources can only be governed by a globally respected authority, in a peaceful world abiding by global standards; 5)  Extreme poverty. This one is not really a risk. The suffering it causes is well known and now, not in the future. Though much less today than decades ago 800 million people worldwide still suffer extreme poverty.

This book was really enlightening to me. I dare say you will be surprised at how little you really know about the worlds condition today and how it is actually improving in nearly every important metric.

Book Review Number 44

Surviving Autocracy – Masha Gessen

Masha Gessen, is a Russian-American journalist, author, and activist who is an outspoken critic of President Vladimir Putin as well as President Donald Trump. He holds dual citizenship and has lived the political reality in both countries under both presidents. He currently lives in New York.

After Trump was elected in 2016, Gessen wrote that it was folly to regard him as a regular politician and predicted that he would attempt to transform America into a Putin-style autocracy. In this book he demonstrates how Trump has so far come closer to achieving autocratic rule than most people would have thought possible.

The author says that most Americans believe that our democratic institutions of governance and oversight – the electoral system, the judiciary, the free press, and others – will prevent autocracy. But most of those institutions are enshrined in political culture, tradition, and democratic norms rather than in law. Virtually all depend on the good faith of the politicians in-charge to fulfill their official responsibility and uphold the constitution.

He says Trump ignores virtually all historical convention and violates nearly every established precedent. And sadly there is no clear legal framework to prevent him from doing pretty much as he pleases. He has the biggest megaphone in the world and he uses it to bully and abuse anyone who dares not to immediately bend to his will. Worse, the Republican Party either endorses Trump’s autocratic tendencies or is paralyzed with fear of challenging him.

Gessen says Trump is showing that an autocratic attempt in the US has a credible chance of success, especially when his own political party refuses to hold him accountable. It shows such an attempt builds logically on the structures and norms of the American government: more and more concentration of power in the executive branch over the decades as well as the marriage of money and politics. Whether by fear or ideological agreement Republican politicians’ seem willing to endorse Trump’s every whim. He seems to be their only audience.

In order to actually survive Trump’s attempt at autocracy Gessen says we have to give up the idea that just getting rid of Trump will solve the problem. We can’t return to government as it used to be. Recovery from the damage of Trumpism will only be possible by reinventing our institutions; we have to more clearly define and memorialize what it means to be a democracy. He says we have to deal with some fatal flaws at the root of our system of governance. He suggests the protests we are experiencing are calling for an American reinvention – equal treatment before the law, equal opportunity, and less economic inequality. In short, protestors are demanding a more perfect union.

Book Review Number 43

The SS officer’s Armchair: Uncovering the Hidden Life of a Nazi – Daniel Lee

Most histories of the Third Reich focus on its senior leadership. This book, on the other hand, is the story of one of the tens of thousands of lower level mostly anonymous SS officers; they were the ones who actually directed and oversaw the implementation of the policies of anti-Semitism, slave labor, property confiscation, torture, and executions in the Third Reich. This officer’s story would likely never have been known except for an accidental discovery 70 plus years later.

I first learned about this case and the imminent publication of Daniel Lee’s book from an op-ed in the Times of Israel. His book is factual and contains history, mystery, and human interest, in more or less equal parts. I won’t provide much detail here. The story is much too complex to do it justice. I will just present the central theme and leave the details to those who choose to read the book:

In 2011 a lady in the Netherlands (not related to the officer in any way) sent a chair that had been in her family for many years to an upholstery shop to be recovered. In the recovering process multiple Nazi documents belonging to an SS officer by the name of Robert Griesinger were found hidden in the seat cushion. That discovery started the author on a multi-year research and investigative mission to discover who Griesinger was and try to understand his story.

Griesinger was a lawyer by training and mostly served as a “desk perpetrator” of the crimes the Nazis carried out against humanity. That means this particular officer for the most part did not kill or commit other atrocities himself; he administered the laws, managed the process, and issued the orders for the inhuman abuses that others carried out. In his day job he used his position to confiscate property, requisition slave labor, and round-up people for torture or execution; then he went home to his wife and children as any normal office worker might.

The last couple of years of the war Griesinger, with his family, was stationed in Prague, Czechoslovakia where he practiced his criminal Nazi duties and eventually met his end. As the war ended his wife and children became refugees trying to walk through the Alps to Liechtenstein.

Much of the value of this book is the insights we get into the character and internal workings of the feared SS/Gestapo organization as well as the typical life of a lower level SS officer. The author, with almost heroic effort, uncovered much of Griesinger’s life as well as how he fit into the broader Nazi regime. He also provides short glimpses of the anti-Semitic attitudes of the German population during the war, their belief in ultimate victory even toward the end, and a bit of insight into their plight afterwards.

Book Review Number 42

Invisible Women: Data Bias in a World Designed for Men – Caroline Criado Perez

This book should be required reading for every male before he can get a drivers license or register to vote.

The author is a British writer, broadcaster, and feminist activist. In this volume she documents gender inequality and its root causes worldwide. She makes the case that a massive data gap exists between the assumed “default human” (an average male) on which the whole world has been built since the beginning of human history and the reality that the “atypical” (or female) half of the population’s uniqueness is generally ignored. That gap leads to dangerous patterns in women’s lives, including compromised safety in cars, medications, public spaces, as well as increased political and domestic abuse. She uses strong correlation statistics to prove her point.

Ms. Criado Perez’s book is broken into 6 parts:  1) Daily Life; 2) The Workplace; 3) Design; 4) Going to the Doctor; 5) Public Life; 6) When it Goes Wrong. In each section she touches on ways that modern life negatively impacts the health, happiness, fulfillment, and safety of women. She unearths a dangerous pattern in data collection, analysis, and sex dis-aggregation (or lack thereof) and its consequences on women’s lives.

She identifies how product designers use a “one-size-fits-all” approach for everything from cars to cell phones to musical instruments to voice recognition software. Everything is designed to fit men. And consciously or not cities and other political jurisdictions prioritize public transportation, roads, and other public spaces and facilities primarily to meet the needs of men. In so doing they neglect to consider women’s needs, safety, unique responsibilities, and travel patterns.

Similarly in medical research, women have been mostly excluded from studies and textbooks, leaving them chronically misunderstood, mistreated, and misdiagnosed. For instance women are frequently just assumed to react to medications the same way men do, though there is clear evidence that often is not the case. In fact women are frequently excluded from medical studies because they don’t react the same as men. That difference will somehow corrupt the results! Women are also frequently misdiagnosed in heart attacks and other life threatening conditions because their symptoms are not what are seen in men and as such are not “normal” or necessarily even studied in medical school.

When it comes to working life, the author discusses in detail a number of issues and realities that stack the work environment against women. Among other challenges, she explores the concepts of encumbered versus unencumbered labor and its impact on women’s wellbeing; she covers discrimination against women in pension systems as well as child care responsibilities. She makes the point that all industrialized countries except the US guarantee paid maternity leave; the US is one of only 5 countries in the world with no guaranteed paid maternity leave. Besides the US the other 4 countries are Lesotho, Liberia, Papua New Guinea and Swaziland.

She also effectively demonstrates the myth of meritocracy in the job market. Reviewing employment opportunities as diverse as music, tech, and academia, she shows that women are at a distinct disadvantage simply because they are women. This section is rich with other solid examples of male bias against women in the workplace from things as simple as office temperature settings to as serious as sexual harassment and abuse.

In a section called Design, Ms. Criado Perez discusses the issue of design of buildings, work environments, machinery, tools, and even musical instruments. She points out that virtually all such facilities and systems are made for the “default human” which to repeat is an average sized male. Cars are made for default humans; most other products are also designed around that default human, even including crash dummies used in testing vehicle safety. And when protective equipment is made specifically for females, the product is usually simply a smaller size of the male version without taking into account that women’s bodies have a fundamentally different shape.

The author also has a lot to say about how the political system excludes, minimizes, or demeans women even if/when they are elected to public office. The “good old boy” network works tirelessly to ignore or work around women politicians and community leaders to undermine or minimize their issues and effectiveness. If they press their ideas they are considered too ambitious and power hungry. Strong willed men are praised for being assertive; strong willed women are bitches. And of course when there is a public catastrophe like a flood or hurricane, recovery planning and prioritization decisions are usually done by men without input or consultation from women, or consideration of female victims’ needs.

I have always felt that we get better governance when women are in positions of power. Similarly, probably because my kids are mostly girls, I thought I was fully tuned in to gender discrimination. But this book was an eye opener for me. The author has done an outstanding job of laying out gender discrimination reality in areas I had never even considered. I know she has her own bias on the subject but she has earned the right; she documents the truth of her point beyond any doubt. If I were the Secretary of Education I would order that this book be the basis of a semester-long course on gender inequality required to graduate from high school and well as college.